Top 5 Predictions for the 2026 Real Estate Market in Florida

Looking ahead to 2026, the Florida real estate market is expected to continue adjusting after several years of rapid change, with interest rates, pricing, migration, insurance, and taxes all playing key roles.

1) Mortgage interest rates may settle, not drop dramatically

Mortgage interest rates are widely expected to settle rather than fall dramatically, with most forecasts placing average rates in the low-6% range. While this would be an improvement from recent highs, borrowing costs are still likely to limit how aggressively buyers return to the market and encourage more thoughtful purchasing decisions.

2) Home prices may move modestly, with big differences by location

Home prices are projected to experience only modest movement, with many analysts forecasting flat to slightly negative growth nationwide. In Florida, price changes are expected to vary by region, with some areas seeing small declines while well-located or supply-constrained communities remain relatively stable.

3) Inbound migration should continue, even if it slows

Florida is expected to continue benefiting from inbound migration, particularly from high-cost states such as New York and New Jersey. While the pace of relocation may cool from pandemic-era peaks, affordability pressures, tax considerations, and lifestyle preferences continue to support population growth across much of the state.

4) Homeowners insurance will stay a major affordability factor

Homeowners insurance will remain a major challenge in Florida, as weather risk, rebuilding costs, and reinsurance pressures keep premiums elevated. Although recent legislative efforts aim to stabilize the insurance market, costs are expected to remain a significant factor in overall housing affordability.

5) Property taxes remain in the spotlight

Property taxes are also likely to stay at the center of public debate, with ongoing discussions around expanded homestead exemptions, rebates, and even proposals to eliminate property taxes for Florida residents. Major changes would require voter approval and alternative funding sources, making smaller adjustments more likely than sweeping reform in the near term.

Overall, 2026 appears poised to be a year of gradual adjustment rather than dramatic shifts for Florida’s housing market.

Sources: Kiplinger, Investopedia, U.S. Census Bureau, Axios, Federal Reserve